When do opposition groups decide to mount a terrorism campaign and when do they enter an open civil conflict against … the ruling government? This paper models an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and open conflict …. Terrorism emerges if executive constraints are intermediate and rents are sizeable. Open conflict is predicted to emerge under …

This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and de-escalation. We make three major …-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we develop a novel empirical framework. We propose a dynamic ordered probit … aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries that are exogenous to …

high in Afghanistan, and especially so in regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this puzzle … by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level in 2007−14 with a model of consumption at the household … level in 2011. The estimates show that large troop deployments reduced conflict intensity but also boosted local consumption …

high in Afghanistan, and especially so in regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this puzzle … by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level in 2007−14 with a model of consumption at the … household level in 2011. The estimates show that large troop deployments reduced conflict intensity but also boosted local …

We decompose the relationship between food aid and conflict into the channels through which food aid can affect … conflict. We address questions of methodological choice and estimation techniques for empirical studies. Our review of the … empirical evidence on the effect of food aid on conflict shows that none of the previous studies proposes a compelling …

This paper analyzes optimal foreign aid policy in a neoclassical framework with a conflict of interest between the …

Despite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic … activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict … in conflict-related casualties has a strong negative impact on formal economic activity in the following quarter and a …