Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic "indicators" is...

Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...

In this paper, we empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, we carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process, the...

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...

We make use of the extant testing methodology of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) and Ai͏̈t-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a,b,c) to examine the importance of jumps, and in particular "large" and "small" jumps, using high frequency price returns on 25 stocks in the DOW 30 and S&P futures index....