Cyclically adjusted budget deficit (CAB) is a widely cited and used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situation. The key idea behind it is to separate temporary and/or non-discretionary effects on budget deficit from the underlying balance and/or effects of discretionary measures of fiscal...

Die Industrie in Deutschland hat dank des seit Anfang 2009 ununterbrochenen Wachstums im Sommer 2011 das Produktionsniveau von vor der Wirtschaftskrise wieder erreicht. Getrieben wurde die Erholung durch die starke in- und ausländische Nachfrage nach deutschen Investitions- und...

With the widespread application of inventory control Systems in industry and trade and a fast growing Services sector the influence of inventory changes on the business sector should become less important over time. However, the empirical eyidence for Germany in the period 1970-1994 shows that...

Fast alle Branchen der deutschen Industrie haben in diesem Jahr kräftig expandiert. Die Produktion im produzierenden Gewerbe ohne Baugewerbe wird im Jahresdurchschnitt um knapp neun Prozent höher sein als 2009. Die schnelle und kräftige Erholung beruht auch darauf, dass Deutschland im...

This paper assesses the potential procyclical effects of Basel II capital requirements by evaluating to what extent those effects depend on the composition of banks' asset portfolios and on how borrowers' credit risk evolves over the business cycle. By developing a heterogeneous-agent general...

The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...

Im Rahmen der regelmäßigen Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR) werden nicht nur die Daten am aktuellen Rand, sondern auch weit in die Vergangenheit zurückreichende Zeitreihen überarbeitet. Damit gehen regelmäßig Niveaueffekte, zum Beispiel ein höheres...

According to recent studies, shocks on aggregated variables are associated with unequal impacts on the economic system, affecting more some agents and sectors than others according, depending on their characteristics. Theoretically, the mechanisms that differentiate shocks’ effects on economic...

Tax and social reforms aiming at lowering the tax burden and cutting social benefits may boost effciency and output, and improve market adjustment to shocks. But they may also reduce the impact of automatic stabilizers and so cause a less cyclical smoothing. This is problematic in the Economic...

This paper reviews the evidence on the sources of business cycles within and across countries and the implications for the importance of borders in business cycles. A simple econometric model is presented and applied to within-U.S. and cross-country data in order to provide a framework for...