We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We select the transformation of the oil price of Lee, Ni...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

We introduce a reduced rank technique for testing for common deterministic shifts. The reduced rank approach is analysed also in the context of super exogenity and an alternative test for super-exogenity is proposed. One important advantage of this approach is that departing from the...

This paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive...

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that...

Bei Vorliegen nach unten starrer Nominallöhne erschwert niedrige Inflation Reallohnanpassungen und führt so möglicherweise zu erhöhter gleichgewichtiger Arbeitslosigkeit. Dieser Aufsatz analysiert die wachsende Evidenz zu nach unten starren Nominallöhnen. Es werden nicht nur die...

In this paper we set up a baseline, but nevertheless advanced and complete model representing detailed goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, dual and cross-dual wage-price adjustment processes, as well as counter-cyclical government policies. The cyclical movements of output...

We consider a theoretical model in which unions not only take the outside option into account, but also base their wage-setting decisions on an internal reference, called the fairness reference. Wage and employment outcomes and the shape of the aggregate wagesetting curve depend on the weight...

This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model,...