In diesem Beitrag wird der vergleichsweise neue Ansatz der „Strukturellen Vektorautoregression“ (SVAR) vorgestellt und anhand einfacher Beispiele illustriert. Auf der Basis der Theorie rationaler Erwartungen wird unterschieden, inwieweit der Einsatz wirtschaftspolitischer Instrumente von den...

This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T), and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and...

Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an...

Zur Beurteilung und Prognose der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutsehland eine Reihe unterschiedlicher Indikatoren verwendet. In dieser Studie werden graphische und ökonometrische Verfahren angewandt, um die Prognosequalität der rneist beachteten Konjunkturindikatoren in Dentschland...

A high degree of cyclical synchronization between central and east European countries (CEECs) and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. This paper investigates comovements between CEECs and the euro area. We first establish stylized facts on economic...