Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life...

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different...

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different...

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life...

The effects of population change on requirements for physicians in Ontario are studied. Principal findings are the following: (a) contrary to popular belief, the overall increase in requirements will be significantly lower in 2000-2020 than in the preceding two decades; (b) population aging...

The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such...

The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such...

A model of the demand for electricity and natural gas in commercial buildings is specified and estimated using data from the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey. Although not observed, declining rate schedules are allowed for by an adaptation of a method proposed by Halvorsen (1975)....

The recent restructuring of the Ontario secondary school system means that two graduating classes the so-called "double cohort" will compete for admission to the universities in the fall of 2003. Unless admission standards are raised to restrict enrolment, the sheer numbers involved will place...

Two demographic events will have significant effects on the Ontario university system this decade. The first is the growth in the population of student age, which will increase the demand on the system. That increase is associated with the baby boom echo, but it will be exacerbated by the...