Showing 1 - 10 of 289
Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand's real GDP. Model selection is … forecasting settings are performed with the VAR models. The first provides conditional predictions of New Zealand's real GDP when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196023
measures permitting a ranking of the forecasting quality. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014523724
The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887
The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593795
This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of log per capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also proposed. The approach is compatible with individual output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783799
German Abstract: Der Forschungsbericht analysiert die Anwendbarkeit nachhaltiger Geldanlagestrategien für das Eigengeschäft (Depot A) deutscher Sparkassen und Landesbanken. Mittels einer Panelanalyse werden zuerst Jahresabschlussdaten dieser Bankengruppe für die Jahre 2013 bis 2015...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012430794
Vorliegendes Arbeitspapier analysiert die Einflüsse intertemporaler Renditezusammenhänge und fester Startwerte in Vektorautoregressions-(VAR-) Modellen für stetige Renditen anhand des Vergleichs mit einem statischen Random-Walk-Modell.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005842330
Die vorliegende Studie untersucht für den Zeitraum Februar 1973 bis Dezember 2003 den Einfluss sechs makroökonomischer Variablen auf die Risikoprämien von Bankaktien in Deutschland. Besondere Bedeutung kommt der getrennten Analyse von Universal- und Hypothekenbanken zu. Die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014523255
Summary: This paper examines the longterm forecast performance of cointegrated systems relative to forecast performance of comparable VAR that fails to recognize that the system is characterized by cointegration. I use Monte Carlo simulation, real data sets, and multi-step-ahead forecasts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015259895
The globalisation on financial markets and the development of financial derivatives has increased not only chances but also potential risk within the banking industry. Especially market risk has gained major significance since market price variation of interest rates, stocks or exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331352