In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the best way to reduce the tax burden on the production sector in Brazil, by simulating an overlapping generations model calibrated to the country's economy. Our focus is on the comparison of the macroeconomic and welfare impacts brought about by...

This paper attempts to discuss quality and some improvements in high frequency time series data of the nominal gross investment expenses for Brazilian municipalities which are state capitals. We first utilized data for the 2001-2008 period available in Relatórios Resumidos de Execução...

We estimate the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Besides panel data, we estimate the Phillips curve by time series methodology, including Bayesian techniques and Smoothing Transition Regressions (STR) model. The econometric results show three important...

This paper focuses on the changes in income and activity sectors on the economically active rural population (EAP) between 1996 and 2006. Besides a brief introduction, its divide into more tree parts. The first part analyzes the changes in income and activity sectors based on the National...

This discussion paper presents a methodology to visualize the effects of various influences on the income distribution. The methodology, although not new, has become very popular in the past few years. It is the method of counterfactual simulations. In other words, it is the use of "what if...