In a general jump-diffusion Radon-Nikodym setup with stochastic Girsanov processes, we derive optimal equivalent probability measures. Optimality is measured in terms of minimum relative entropy and also by more general divergence concepts. We further prove an anticipative sufficient stochastic...

We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional failure for Euro area sovereigns. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t copula which captures all the salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection...

This paper presents a new model for term risk, yield curve, and credit risk in spreads in a unified approach. The originality lies in the structuring of the Poisson stochastic of risk in a form suitable for finding the differential equation for the yield curve and its spreads as the Poisson...

We analyse the voting pattern in the June 23rd referendum on the continued participation of the United Kingdom in the European Union and evaluate the reasons for the results. We find that regions where GDP per capita is low, a high proportion of people have low education, a high proportion is...

EU Eastern Enlargement elicited a rise in (temporary) labour market oriented immi-gration to Germany starting in May 2011. Taking into account that not all immigrantsstay permanently and that outmigration flows are selective, this paper classifies recent EUimmigrants into “new arrivals” and...

We analyse the voting pattern in the June 23rd referendum on the continued participation of the United Kingdom in the European Union and evaluate the reasons for the results. We find that regions where GDP per capita is low, a high proportion of people have low education, a high proportion is...

Membership of the European Union has contributed to the economic prosperity of the United Kingdom. Uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum has already started to weaken growth in the United Kingdom. A UK exit (Brexit) would be a major negative shock to the UK economy, with economic...

The common European labor market encourages worker mobility that enhances allocative efficiency, but certain institutional features may trigger inefficient migration. As a job in one of Europe's high-income countries typically also entails coverage in a generous welfare and social insurance...

The numbers of migrants from the accessions countries have clearly increased since the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Following enlargement, the net inflow of EU8 immigrants has become 2.5 times larger than the four-year period before enlargement. Poles constitute the largest immigrant group...

We analyse the relationships between employment, population and regional development in Europe with a cross section sample, for year 2000, of 151 regions belonging to the 25 countries of EU after Enlargement of year 2004. Regional disparities in EU are higher than in the US, while the rate of...