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We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864839
In this paper we provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macro economic variables such as inflation and output growth. Some probabilistic forecasts of different scenarios associated to those variables are also calculated. The probability forecasts take different types of uncertainties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089912
Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843568
Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843598
We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080529
This paper examined a set of over two thousand crypto-coins observed between 2015 and 2020 to estimate their credit risk by computing their probability of death. We employed different definitions of dead coins, ranging from academic literature to professional practice, alternative forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404509
Although survey‐based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382059
The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available, suggesting the adoption of simple time series models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318557
The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation and interest rates an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014071755
We used a recursive modeling approach to study whether investors could, in real time, have used information on the comovement of stock markets to forecast stock returns in European stock markets for high-technology firms. We used weekly data on returns in the Neuer Markt, the Nouveau Marché,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260542