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We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864839
This paper provides an empirical investigation of the wage, price and unemployment dynamics that have taken place in Spain during the last two decades. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the impact of the European economic integration on Spanish labour market and the convergence to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132790
Labor supply shocks can have substantial effects on the Beveridge Curve. Structural VARs with sign restrictions show that the shocks associated with the free movement of workers from Eastern Europe have temporarily increased unemployment in Austria, a major destination country, by 25 percent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268246
This paper examines the determinants of the wage level and the relation between the wage level and unemployment in Sweden between 1982 and 2002, using a cointegrated VAR approach. The long-run relation between wages and unemployment is found to be negative. There is also evidence of large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208495
New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420820
This paper examines the relationship between unemployment, real oil price and real interest rates in Canada. Instead of following the classical approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships, we use fractional integration/cointegration techniques which allow for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310351
The creation of jobs in the low-pay sector is considered to be an approach to reduce unemployment, especially with respect to low-skilled workers. By now, the expansion of the German low-wage sector over the last 15 years is empirically confirmed, which indicates a successful implementation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009306634
This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe downturn in the recent global crisis as reflected by the largest increases in their unemployment rates among other developed economies. Spain and Ireland might seem at first to feature very different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009307347
Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
Spain and Ireland might seem at first to feature very different labour markets, which go from very tight to very flexible labour conditions. Our analysis, however, goes beyond this simplistic argument and brings to light some important similarities. For this purpose, we estimate a dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009725373