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Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns strictly increase in an underlying characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, one needs to take the entire range of the characteristic into account, as is done in the recent proposal of Patton and Timmermann...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009747441
We propose to model the joint distribution of bid-ask spreads and log returns of a stock portfolio by using Autoregressive Conditional Double Poisson and GARCH processes for the marginals and vine copulas for the dependence structure. By estimating the joint multivariate distribution of both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091510
We reveal a novel channel through which market participants' sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, if good (bad) “news” about dividends and interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834037
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895038
-producing industries exhibit widespread predictive ability, consistent withthe gradual diffusion of information across economically linked … industries. Out-of-sample industry return forecasts that incorporate the information in lagged industryreturns are economically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900047
Can the degree of predictability found in the data be explained by existing asset pricing models? We provide two theoretical upper bounds on the R-squares of predictive regressions. Using data on the market and component portfolios, we find that the empirical R-squares are significantly greater...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973313
This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974764
stock and bond markets and to art market sentiment. It takes about six months for art prices to incorporate information … the short-term. These findings suggest that art market participants react with a delay to information contained in stock … market returns, so that information diffuses only slowly into art prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856506
Testing for constant expected returns and forecasting future returns necessitate the information beyond a single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919518