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Information Uncertainties and Asset Pricing Puzzles : Risk or Mispricing?
Li, Keming - 2015
Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns …. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the …, Merton (1974) asserts that default risk is a function of the uncertainty in the asset value process. Information uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014736
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Behavioral Finance - Asset Prices Predictability, Equity Premium Puzzle, Volatility Puzzle : The Rational Finance Approach
Rachev, Svetlozar T. - 2020
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
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Is There a Macro-Announcement Premium?
Ghaderi, Mohammad - 2020
The VIX barely drops at macro-announcements. This is at odds with virtually all models that attempt to explain the "macro-announcement premium." We point out that the macro-announcement sample is too small, considering the high volatility and fat tail of daily returns. Our small-sample argument...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825382
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Machine Learning Predictions of Credit and Equity Risk Premia
Kita, Arben - 2021
predict risk premiums, indicating that credit-market-based risk measures contain valuable information for forecasting firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240829
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Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets : a text-based approach
Bua, Giovanna; Kapp, Daniel; Ramella, Federico; … - 2022
the industry they operate in. We find that firm level information appears to be used as a gauge for transition risk, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013271146
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Equity Premium Prediction by Sparse Pooling of Parsimonious State-Dependent Models
de Almeida, Daniel - 2018
A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913585
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Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning : The Global Edition
Cakici, Nusret; Zaremba, Adam - 2022
We examine the cross-section of international equity risk premia with machine learning methods. We identify, classify, and calculate 88 market characteristics and use them to forecast country returns with various machine learning techniques. While all algorithms produce substantial economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306087
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Long-term volatility shapes the stock market’s sensitivity to news
Conrad, Christian; Schölkopf, Julius; Tushteva, Nikoleta - 2023
We show that the S&P 500’s instantaneous response to surprises in U.S. macroeconomic announcements depends on the level of long-term stock market volatility. When long-term volatility is high, stock returns are more sensitive to news, and there is a pronounced asymmetry in the response to good...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014440865
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Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning
Gu, Shihao - 2019
We perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premia. We demonstrate large economic gains to investors using machine learning forecasts, in some cases doubling the performance of leading regression-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899608
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Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium : The Importance of Regime-Dependent Evaluation
Baltas, Nick - 2020
Asset allocation is critically dependent on the ability to forecast the equity risk premium (ERP) out-of-sample. But, is superior econometric predictability across the business cycle synonymous to predictability at all times? We evaluate recently introduced ERP forecasting models, which have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855775