We derive a framework for asymptotically valid inference in stable vector autoregressive (VAR) models with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. We prove a joint central limit theorem for the VAR slope parameter and innovation covariance parameter estimators and address bootstrap...

We combine unsupervised machine-learning and econometric methods to examine cultural change in 16th- and 17th-century England. A machine-learning digest synthesizes the content of 57,863 texts comprising 83 million words into 110 topics. The topics include the expected, such as Natural...

We derive a framework for asymptotically valid inference in stable vector autoregressive (VAR) models with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. We prove a joint central limit theorem for the VAR slope parameter and innovation covariance parameter estimators and address bootstrap...

We combine unsupervised machine-learning and econometric methods to examine cultural change in 16th- and 17th-century England. A machine-learning digest synthesizes the content of 57,863 texts comprising 83 million words into 110 topics. The topics include the expected, such as Natural...

This article was prepared for the Special Issue "Celebrated Econometricians: Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen" of Econometrics. It is based on material recorded on 30 October 2018 in Copenhagen. It explores Søren Johansen’s research, and discusses inter alia the following issues:...

This paper examines the rise of the VAR approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises as a systematic solution to the issue of 'model choice' bypassed by Cowles Commission (CC) researchers, and that the approach essentially inherits and enhances the CC legacy...

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments and other features with data equivalents. We note that they select, scale and characterise the shocks without reference to the data; crucially they fail to use the joint distribution of the...

We examine a two country model of the EU and the US. Each has a small sector of the labour and product markets in which there is wage/price rigidity, but otherwise enjoys flexible wages and prices with a one quarter information lag. Using a VAR to represent the data, we find the model as a whole...

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in...

We evaluate the Smets-Wouters model of the US dynamically using indirect inference with a VAR representation of the main US data series. We find that the New Keynesian SW model is badly rejected by the data's dynamic properties and in particular cannot match the variability of the data. An...