A recursive algorithm for estimating linear models with both constant and time-varying parameters is derived by maximization of a likelihood function. Recursive formulas are also derived for derivatives of the likelihood function; the derivatives are needed for numerical evaluation of some...

Applied general and partial equilibrium models are widely used tools for ex ante analysis of trade policy changes. However, simulation results seem to exhibit significant variation across publications, and the often criticised 'black box' character of applied trade models makes meaningful...

The paper considers the benefit to agricultural producers from commodity price insurance that provides in every year, but in advance of the resolution of production and price uncertainty, a minimum price for a fixed or variable portion of production. Under the assumption that producers do not...

This paper explores the impact of the recent soar in world commodity prices on economic activity and household welfare in Tanzania, and the possible policy responses to that shock. The analysis is based on a single country computable general equilibrium model that includes considerable factor...