We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...

The aim of this paper is to present novel tests for the early causal diagnostic of positive and negative bubbles in the S&P 500 index and the detection of End-of-Bubble signals with their corresponding confidence levels. We use monthly S&P 500 data covering the period from August 1791 to August...

We propose a new paradigm to study coordination in complex social systems, such as financial markets, that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. This new context has features from prediction markets that have been shown previously to mitigate price bubbles in classical asset market experiments....

We provide a roadmap to understand and develop resilience, based on the realisation that resilience is the complement of risk, both being associated to the stresses supported by the socio-economic system. We propose instruments for resilience build-up and management based on a novel...

We report strong evidence that changes of momentum, i.e. "acceleration", defined as the first difference of successive returns, provide better performance and higher explanatory power than momentum. The corresponding Γ-factor explains the momentum-sorted portfolios entirely but not the reverse....

We augment the existing literature using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) structures in the log-price dynamics to diagnose financial bubbles by providing three main innovations. First, we introduce the quantile regression to the LPPLS detection problem. This allows us to disentangle...

Puzzling deviations from the predictions of rational finance theory have been extensively documented empirically. In this paper, we offer an explanation for one of these anomalies, the “excess volatility puzzle”, i.e. the observation that prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified....

To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...

We live in a ‘zero-risk society', characterized by a culture that is obsessed with controlling and removing any possible risks. Obviously, one of the fundamental objectives of any civilization is to improve the safety and security of its citizens. However, we should not let the cozy comfort...