We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...

Investors recently are really concerned about the risk aspects associated with the investment in securities. Volatility calculation, therefore, has become an important aspect in the financial markets. For these reasons time series models are greatly used to forecast volatility. One such model is...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

In this paper, we develop and apply Bayesian inference for an extended Nelson-Siegel (1987) term structure model capturing interest rate risk. The so-called Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel (SVNS) model allows for stochastic volatility in the underlying yield factors. We propose a Markov...

In certain circumstances, both researchers and policy makers are faced with the challenge of determining individual efficiency scores for each decision making unit (DMU) under consideration. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo experimentation to analyze the optimal approach to determining...

A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically in this paper. Volatility dynamics are modelled both exogenously and deterministic, captured by a nonparametric curve estimation on equidistant centered returns. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of a...

This working paper aims to stress the role of the institutional capital and its components, as primary factors, in economic results at the national level, using adequate measurement indicators and econometric models. For this purpose, we analysed the following aspects: the definition of...

Hausman (1978) developed a widely-used model specification test that has passed the test of time. The test is based on two estimators, one being consistent under the null hypothesis but inconsistent under the alternative, and the other being consistent under both the null and alternative...

Classical regression analysis uses partial coefficients to measure the influences of some variables (regressors) on another variable (regressand). However, a descriptive point of view shows that these coefficients are very bad measures of influence. Their interpretation as an average change of...

Explained variance (R^2) is a familiar summary of the fit of a linear regression and has been generalized in various ways to multilevel (hierarchical) models. The multilevel models we consider in this paper are characterized by hierarchical data structures in which individuals are grouped into...