The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to … the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds … the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on …

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to … the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds … the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on …

-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Log linearization under- states the mean and volatility of unemployment, but overstates the volatility of labor … market tightness and the magnitude of the unemployment-vacancy correlation. Log linearization also understates the impulse … responses in unemployment in recessions, but overstates the responses in the market tightness in booms. Finally, the second …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for … particular, we propose two broad categories of unemployment rate benchmarks: (1) a longer-run unemployment rate expected to … prevail after adjusting to business cycle shocks and (2) a stable-price unemployment rate tied to inflationary pressures. We …

-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Log linearization under- states the mean and volatility of unemployment, but overstates the volatility of labor … market tightness and the magnitude of the unemployment-vacancy correlation. Log linearization also understates the impulse … responses in unemployment in recessions, but overstates the responses in the market tightness in booms. Finally, the second …

A search and matching model, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of unemployment in the postwar sample, can … potentially explain the unemployment crisis in the Great Depression. The limited responses of wages from credible bargaining to … labor market conditions, along with the congestion externality from matching frictions, cause the unemployment rate to rise …

unemployment rates, is a good start to understanding the unemployment crisis in the Great Depression. Drawing from rarely used data … sources, this paper compiles historical monthly time series of U.S. unemployment rates, vacancy rates, and labor productivity …, some of which date back to 1890. The frequency, persistence, and severity of the unemployment crises in the model are …

week in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit payments from late March through July 2020. This unprecedented increase in UI …