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in the probit model the fact that the economy is already in a state of recession must be controlled for. The results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013436097
negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are … well. We show that such model-implied recession probabilities strongly improve equity premium prediction out-of-sample. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106
This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867077
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … point in time, the ProbVAR allows to generate conditional recession probabilities for any sequence of forecast horizons. At …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
significantly improve the precision of recession predictions, especially at horizons further out than one year. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404520
This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123785
growth rate). Furthermore, the dates discovered as recession periods match remarkably well with the Swiss business cycle … significant duration dependence in recessions, i.e. the longer a recession lasts the more likely it is to end …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773497
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … point in time, the ProbVAR allows to generate conditional recession probabilities for any sequence of forecast horizons. At …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154
recession forecasts significantly. In particular, the factor related to financial market participants’ uncertainty and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663432