This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial markets over a long span of 125 years. Unlike existing studies that mainly focus on monetary policy shocks and model-based identification of fiscal policy shocks, we use a time-varying parameter model to study the effect of fiscal...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

This paper investigates the existence of significant spillovers from the housing sector onto the wider economy for the seven major OECD countries using Uhlig's (2005) agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in a six-variable VAR model by...

Understanding within and between group inequality is fundamental in understanding the evolution of income inequality in any country. Using a century of data for France, and the Theil measure of income inequality, which is decomposable, we show that income inequality within the bottom 90\%...