We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

We suggest the use of an index of Internet job-search intensity (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US monthly unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more...

This paper uses matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census Bureau to investigate the contribution of worker and firm reallocation to changes in wage inequality within and across industries between 1992 and 2003. We find that the entry and exit of firms and the sorting of workers and...

I study inequality in job values, both in terms of wages and non-wage values, in Austria over the period 1996 to 2011. I show that differences in non-wage job value between firms are non-parametrically identified from data on worker flows and wage differentials. Intuitively, firms with high...

In an era characterized by population aging and economic challenges in welfare states across the world, sustaining these welfare systems requires a large workforce. Many individuals outside the labor market aspire to work but encounter a labyrinth of obstacles. While Public Employment Services...

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

This paper develops and estimates a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal (federal) minimum wage policies. In the model, firms post vacancies in multiple locations. Workers, who are heterogeneous in terms of location and education types, engage...

This paper quantifies the impact of borrowing constraints on consumption and earnings inequality in a life-cycle model with labor market search and endogenous human capital accumulation. I first show that following an unemployment spell, likely-constrained workers in the Survey of Income and...

Using individual-level data for 30 European countries between 1983 and 2019, we document the extent and earning consequences of workers’ reallocation across occupations and industries and how these outcomes vary with individual-level characteristics, namely (i) education, (ii) gender, and...

This paper uses ECHP and OECD data for 14 EU countries to explore the role of labour market factors in explaining cross-national differences in the dynamic structure of earnings: in permanent inequality, transitory inequality and earnings mobility. Based on ECHP, minimum distance estimator is...