This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

What is the long-run relationship between monetary and fiscal policies? This paper provides an answer by examining a large set of data covering major economies during the past 115 years. The evidence suggests the existence of a close interaction between the monetary regime, that is the behaviour...

The coronavirus pandemic triggered strong political action across Europe. Mandatory restrictions to increase social distancing were imposed, commonly known as lockdowns. In some cases, entire countries were virtually locked down for several weeks at a time, contributing to a very severe downturn...

Crises are a major driving force behind cooperation in the European Union. This holds also for monetary and fiscal policy. During severe crises, cooperation has been enlarged and intensified. The recent covid-19 pandemic is a clear example of this pattern. The pandemic has had huge impact on the...

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption...

91 countries around the world have established fiscal rules to limit national debt and/or budget deficits. Using data from previous natural disasters, this report investigates how these fiscal rules affect overall economic development following a crisis. The results show countries with fiscal...

The presently tenuous situation in Turkey will worsen if the government does not take appropriate policy action. In view of foreign investors' loss of confidence, the cost of external financing is likely to rise while consumption and investment will fall, and the Turkish lira would depreciate...

This paper explores the evolution of Swedish fiscal policy from one extreme approach to another one in less than four decades. After the demise of the Bretton Woods-system in the early 1970s, Swedish fiscal policy was based on a Keynesian approach with the goal to stabilize the business cycle...

This paper derives a set of policy lessons for Portugal from the new fiscal framework including a fiscal policy council that gradually emerged in Sweden after the deep economic crisis of the early 1990s. By now, Swedish public finances stand out among the strongest in Europe. Recent Swedish...

Rules-based fiscal policy is under threat. Over the last two decades, it proved frustratingly complicated to strike the right balance between three essential properties of sound fiscal policy rules: simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Simplicity has been sacrificed to ensure that more...