A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically in this paper. Volatility dynamics are modelled both exogenously and deterministic, captured by a nonparametric curve estimation on equidistant centered returns. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of a...

In this paper we first investigate the validity of a general Value at Risk approach, which is widely used for risk management in banking and insurance companies. We discuss and widely reject the conventional assumptions, e.g. independent identically distributed normal returns, and as consequence...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of the absolute version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) of a sample of four advanced and four emerging countries covering the period from 1993 to 2014. To examine the existence of PPP we apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, DF-GLS and...

This paper proposes the use of the bootstrap when the system Wald test is employed to test for linear restrictions in a stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The bootstrap test is conducted using the generalized least square estimator for VAR parameters, which takes account of...

Constructing joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions based on a VAR model is a difficult task because of the non-linear nature of such functions. We propose new joint confidence bands that cover the entire true structural impulse response function up to a chosen maximum...

Conditional heteroskedasticity can be exploited to identify the structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) but the implications for inference on structural impulse responses have not been investigated in detail yet. We consider the conditionally heteroskedastic SVAR-GARCH model and propose a...

Constructing joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions based on a VAR model is a difficult task because of the non-linear nature of such functions. We propose new joint confidence bands that cover the entire true structural impulse response function up to a chosen maximum...

This article investigates the construction of skewness-adjusted confidence intervals and joint confidence bands for impulse response functions from vector autoregressive models. Three different implementations of the skewness adjustment are investigated. The methods are based on a bootstrap...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...