Die deutsche Wirtschaft kühlt sich seit Anfang letzten Jahres spürbar ab. Allerdings ist die konjunkturelle Entwicklung gespalten. Das exportorientierte Verarbeitende Gewerbe, in dem etwa ein Viertel der Wertschöpfung erwirtschaftet wird, steckt in einer Rezession. Wirtschaftspolitiken, die...

Am 12. Dezember 2019 stellte das ifo Institut seine Prognose für die Jahre 2019, 2020 und 2021 vor. Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat sich im dritten Quartal 2019 stabilisiert, nachdem das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Quartal zuvor noch um 0,2% gesunken ist. Zu dem Anstieg hat vor allem eine kräftige...

The monthly ifo Business Survey is the basis for numerous economic indicators, such as the ifo Business Climate Index Germany. Moreover, the anonymized micro data can be used for a wide range of research projects. In order to obtain robust results, the panel of survey participants must be large...

The IFO Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the IFO Business...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

In this paper we present the Ifo Investment Database, which provides annual investment data for 12 investment assets in 50 German industries from 1991 onward. The data is consistent with national accounts statistics provided by the German Federal Statistical Office and is based on investments in...

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany is considered as the most important leading indicator for the German economy. Media reports often refer to the mood in German boardrooms. Based on a survey conducted in May 2023, we show that most of the around 9,000 respondents to the monthly ifo...