Die deutsche Wirtschaft kühlt sich seit Anfang letzten Jahres spürbar ab. Allerdings ist die konjunkturelle Entwicklung gespalten. Das exportorientierte Verarbeitende Gewerbe, in dem etwa ein Viertel der Wertschöpfung erwirtschaftet wird, steckt in einer Rezession. Wirtschaftspolitiken, die...

Am 12. Dezember 2019 stellte das ifo Institut seine Prognose für die Jahre 2019, 2020 und 2021 vor. Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat sich im dritten Quartal 2019 stabilisiert, nachdem das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Quartal zuvor noch um 0,2% gesunken ist. Zu dem Anstieg hat vor allem eine kräftige...

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency sur- veys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecasting...

Business tendency surveys are a commonly accepted instrument for the assessment of the current business cycle course. Most of these surveys rely on qualitative questions about the current situation of the firms and about heir expectations for the next months. This paper analyzes whether...

Different studies provide surprisingly a large variety of controversial conclusions about the forecasting power of an indicator, even when it is supposed to forecast the same time series. In this study we aim to provide a thorough overview of linear forecasting techniques and draw conclusions...