The paper features an analysis of causal relations between the VIX, S&P500, and the realised volatility (RV) of the S&P500 sampled at 5 minute intervals, plus the application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the VIX. Causal relations are analysed using the recently...

Many existing extensions of the Engle and Russell's (1998) Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model in the literature are aimed at providing additional exibility either on the dynamics of the conditional duration model or the allowed shape of the hazard function, i.e. its two most...

A growing number of empirical studies provides evidence that dynamic properties of macroeconomic time series have been changing over time. Model-based procedures for the measurement of business cycles should therefore allow model parameters to adapt over time. In this paper the time dependencies...

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...

This paper features a statistical analysis of the independence of the core Fama/French factors; SMB and HML, using daily data, of the factor return series, for the USA, Developed Markets and Japan, using a sample taken from the data-sets that are available on French's website. The various series...

This paper puts forward an alternative semiparametric regression approach to a nonlinear ACD modeling. The semiparametric functional form of the dependence of the conditional intensity on past durations suggests that the model be called the Semiparametric ACD (SEMI-ACD) model. The development of...

In this paper, we develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) which is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model which measures...