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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038262
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Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129942
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Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010169
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Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130496
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814581
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003851191
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Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003978514
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity : A Multi-Country Perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio - 2018
volatility series are much higher than cross-country correlations of GDP growth series, we set up a multi-country version of the … Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility consistent with this stylized fact and use it to identify two common factors … country-specific volatility and GDP growth shocks. The paper highlights three main empirical findings. First, it is shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917504