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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010169
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Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130496
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Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038262
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Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129942
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814581
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003851191
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Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003978514
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
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Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014
volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors and that … these factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, the … paper analytically shows that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232