Contrary to the common wisdom that asset prices are barely possible to forecast, we show that that high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable. We propose to model them using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This...

This paper investigates the impact of a financial turmoil on the performances of traditional, and naive, asset allocation strategies. We compare over a long time span (lasting for the last 60 years) the 1/N portfolio with mean-variance optimal portfolio strategies. Our analyses consider several...

The recent financial crisis had a substantial impact on equity and bond markets, as well as on the performances of managed portfolios which have been hit by the decrease of both indices. Nevertheless, the availability of indices monitoring the equity market volatility, the VIX index, credit...

The intercept of the standard CAPM and Conditional CAPM model, the alpha, is used to evaluate the long-run performance of managed portfolios. However, this measure is not always appropriate for detecting the presence and impact of active management strategies. In this paper, we introduce a...

The authors present a rational learner agent, which considers the information coming from a behavioral counterpart during the allocation process.The learner agent adopts a herding behavior by conditioning her choice on the selection of the portfolio's constituents.They use the concept of...

This paper proposes structured parametrizations for multivariate volatility models, which use spatial weight matrices induced by economic proximity. These structured specifications aim at solving the curse of dimensionality problem, which limits feasibility of model-estimation to small...

The simultaneous occurrence of jumps in several stocks can be associated with major financial news, triggers short-term predictability in stock returns, is correlated with sudden spikes of the variance risk premium, and determines a persistent increase (decrease) of stock variances and...

When principal component analysis (PCA) is used on a rolling or conditional setting, ordering and incoherence issues may emerge. We provide empirical evidence supporting this claim and introduce an algorithm that allows dynamic re-ordering of the principal components (PCs). We provide additional...

In many multivariate volatility models, the number of parameters increases faster than the cross-section dimension, hence creating a curse of dimensionality problem. This paper discusses specification and identification of structured parameterizations based on weight matrices induced by economic...