Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...

The inaccuracy of the Black-Scholes formula arises from two aspects: the formula is for European options while most real option contracts are American; the formula is based on the assumption that underlying asset prices follow a lognormal distribution while in the real world asset prices cannot...

This study compares liquidity costs of electronic and open-outcry wheat futures contractstraded side-by-side on the Kansas City Board of Trade. Liquidity costs are considerablylower in the electronic market. Liquidity costs in the electronic market are still considerablylower after eliminating...

Major externality cases are random accidents which are not adequately addressed by the deterministic environmental policy literature -­‐ that of Pigouvian taxes, abatement subsidies and cap-­‐and-­‐trade. We consider a risk-­‐neutral industry where firms control the probability...

The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth...

We develop a model of regulation of environmental risks in a heterogeneousindustry when policy makers are sensitive to uncertainties about the processes generating the risks. Optimal source reduction capacity is shown to vary according to site suitability. Optimal source reduction capacity and...

Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested multiyear rollover hedging as a way to increase producer returns. This study determines whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a...

Traditionally, disaster assistance was available on an ad hoc basis, but the 2008 Farm Act provides a standing disaster assistance program known as Supplemental Revenue Assistance (SURE). This paper introduces a theory of nested insurance to evaluate the impact on of SURE on intensification,...

The major finding is that liquidity costs in futures options market are two to three times higher thanliquidity costs in the futures market. Liquidity cost is one potential factor to consider when choosingbetween hedging with a futures contract or with an option contract. While there is...

We use the actual insurance records of 52,300 farmers and 11 years to estimate two sets of insurance demands. We define measures of insurance's expected returns, variance and third moment, based on observed insurance data, and infer the expected returns for those farmers that have never had an...