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Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle : empirical evidence for euro-area member countries
Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2018
Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates and comparing them to actual real rates. Since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131206
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Policy uncertainty and international financial markets : the case of Brexit
Belke, Ansgar; Dubova, Irina; Osowski, Thomas - In: Applied economics 50 (2018) 34/35, pp. 3752-3770
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059409
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Policy uncertainty and international financial markets : the case of Brexit
Belke, Ansgar; Dubova, Irina; Osowski, Thomas - 2016
This study assesses the impact of Brexit uncertainty on the UK and also on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are highly linked in general and several countries apart from the UK might be negatively affected, one may expect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011582007
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we estimate a large-scale FAVAR model for 18 OECD member countries. We quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks and check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939
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The economic impact of Brexit : evidence from modelling free trade agreements
Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2017
between the UK and the EU27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the US …). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. But all available studies … concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU27 would bear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662701
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On the shock-absorbing properties of a banking union : Europe compared with the United States
Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - In: Comparative economic studies 58 (2016) 3, pp. 359-386
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011665381
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The hardships of Brexit
Belke, Ansgar; Schnabl, Gunther - In: The Economists' voice 16 (2019) 1, pp. 1-3
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157263
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we estimate a large-scale FAVAR model for 18 OECD member countries. We quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks and check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110907
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroe-conomic modeling, we estimate a large-scale FAVAR model for 18 OECD member countries. We quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks and check whether the signs, the magnitude, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691548