This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

China's economy slowed significantly in the first three quarters of 2012 and questions have been raised on a possible hard landing. While recent early indicators have shown signs of improvement in the most recent months, it is essential to understand what is driving this slowdown and how lasting...

The US, Japan and China appear to be heading towards a "new normal". However, the 2014-16 period will be critical to ensure that global growth is put on a sustainable path as ample challenges persist. The brief will first discuss what the new manual would look like in the US, Japan and China. It...