It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another...

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another...

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another...

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The...

This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an...

The United Kingdom employed the McKenna rule to conduct fiscal policy during World War I (WWI) and the interwar period. Named for Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of the Exchequer (1915–16), the McKenna rule committed the United Kingdom to a path of debt retirement, which we show was...

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth...

This paper contributes to the policy evaluation literature by developing new strategies to study alternative policy rules. We compare optimal rules to simple rules within canonical monetary policy models. In our context, an optimal rule represents the solution to an intertemporal optimization...