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How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Thornton, Daniel L. - In: Review (2012) Jan, pp. 21-39
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publishes its Budget and Economic Outlook. The CBO’s deficit projections for the current fiscal year (FY) and the next 10 FYs are widely followed because they provide an assessment of the medium-term budget outlook based on current law and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416054
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Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe
Brück, Tilman; Cors, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F.; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2002
The standardisation of the European systems of national accounts has progressed significantly in recent years. Some room for interpretation remains in regard to some accounting standards, the periodicity of the data, and the quality of the forecasts of budget deficits. Yet national accounts data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069043
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The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Thornton, Daniel L. - In: Review (2001) Mar, pp. 11-24
When the government runs a deficit, it can borrow from the public—that is, it can create debt. Conversely, when the government runs a surplus, it can retire that debt. For the past three years, the federal government has recorded budget surpluses, and both the White House Office of Management...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726131
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Seven faces of "the peril"
Bullard, James - In: Review (2010) Sep, pp. 339-352
regime observed in Japan during the same period. The data considered seem to be quite consistent with the two steady …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008676463
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Intermediaries and payments instruments
Bullard, James; Smith, Bruce D. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2002
We study an economy in which intermediaries have incentives to issue circulating liabilities as part of an equilibrium. We show that, with arbitrarily small transactions costs, only the liabilities of intermediaries will circulate, and not those of other private sector agents. Therefore, our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360537
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The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?
Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000
It is widely believed that the Fed controls the funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the federal funds rate. Recently, however, several economists have suggested that open market operations may not be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360541
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New economy - new policy rules?
Bullard, James; Schaling, Eric - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000
The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360622
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Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves
Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1996
Despite the fact that efforts to identify it empirically have largely been futile, the liquidity effect plays a central … statistically significant and economically important liquidity effect when nonborrowed reserves is used as the indicator of monetary … a liquidity effect. The paper points out how changes in the demand for borrowed reserves can be used to identify whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360647
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The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks
Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009
It is common practice to estimate the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, such as the federal funds futures rate. I show that because interest rates and market-based measures of monetary policy shocks respond simultaneously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077869
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How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009
This paper advances the hypothesis that the transition from there-is-little-central-banks-can-do-to-control-inflation to inflation targeting occurred because central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, demonstrated that central banks can control inflation rather than a consequence of marked...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077875