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We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...
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This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. We report three main...
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holds for the microeconomic response of some of the most important economic variables, such as investment, labor demand, and … actual response to shocks is less than half as fast as the estimated response. For investment, labor demand and prices, the …, even after aggregating investment across all establishments in U.S. manufacturing, the estimate of its speed of adjustment …
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