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This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
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Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...
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this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy to illustrate how our multi-country approach to modelling oil … the global economy (real outputs and financial markets) mainly due to an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production. In … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …
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