We study the performance of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty only. The out-of-sample bands reflect both parameter uncertainty and innovation uncertainty. The...

We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...

This paper assesses the impact of market power and multinationality in EU12 manufacturing industries on EU integration in goods trade in the 90ies. An increase in the market concentration exhibits a positive impact on bilateral exports, while an increase in multinationality works in the opposite...

The envisaged EU enlargement will lead to a redirection of Structural and Cohesion Funds expenditures from current to new EUmembers. This redistribution of funds makes the accession countries even more attractive as a location of FDI. Using a logistic regressions approach, this paper shows that...

A major economic reason for the introduction of the euro was its supposedly positive effect on intra-EMU trade. Existing studies examine this suspicion indirectly using non-EMU data and report ambiguous results. We estimate the euro-effect directly from data that include EMU observations. Using...

We study the performance of two analytical methods and one simulation method for computing in-sample confidence bounds for time-varying parameters. These in-sample bounds are designed to reflect parameter uncertainty in the associated filter. They are applicable to the complete class of...

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...