-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti … forecast accuracy. -- Housing starts ; Forecasting ; Herding …

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations … role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark …. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. -- Oil price ; survey data ; forecast bias ; peso problem …