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How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?

Kliesen, Kevin L.; Thornton, Daniel L. - In: Review (2012) Jan, pp. 21-39

Each year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publishes its Budget and Economic Outlook. The CBO’s deficit projections for the current fiscal year (FY) and the next 10 FYs are widely followed because they provide an assessment of the medium-term budget outlook based on current law and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416054

Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe

Brück, Tilman; Cors, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F.; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2002

The standardisation of the European systems of national accounts has progressed significantly in recent years. Some room for interpretation remains in regard to some accounting standards, the periodicity of the data, and the quality of the forecasts of budget deficits. Yet national accounts data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069043

The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?

Kliesen, Kevin L.; Thornton, Daniel L. - In: Review (2001) Mar, pp. 11-24

When the government runs a deficit, it can borrow from the public—that is, it can create debt. Conversely, when the government runs a surplus, it can retire that debt. For the past three years, the federal government has recorded budget surpluses, and both the White House Office of Management...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726131

Imperfect Central Bank Communication; Information Versus Distraction.

Orphanides, Athanasios; Dale, Spencer; Österholm, Pär - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the value of communicating imperfect information is ambiguous....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248250

The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?

Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2000

It is widely believed that the Fed controls the funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the federal funds rate. Recently, however, several economists have suggested that open market operations may not be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360541

Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves

Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 1996

Despite the fact that efforts to identify it empirically have largely been futile, the liquidity effect plays a central … statistically significant and economically important liquidity effect when nonborrowed reserves is used as the indicator of monetary … a liquidity effect. The paper points out how changes in the demand for borrowed reserves can be used to identify whether …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360647

Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2006

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361476

Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - 2007

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005361522

Summary of papers presented at the conference "models and monetary policy: research in the tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley"

Faust, Jon; Orphanides, Athanasios; Reifschneider, David L. - In: Federal Reserve Bulletin (2004) Sum, pp. 289-295

On March 26 and 27, 2004, the Federal Reserve Board held a conference in Washington, D.C., on the application of economic models to the analysis of monetary policy issues. The papers presented at the conference addressed several topics that, because they are of interest to central bankers, have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005380165

The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks

Thornton, Daniel L. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2009

It is common practice to estimate the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, such as the federal funds futures rate. I show that because interest rates and market-based measures of monetary policy shocks respond simultaneously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077869

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