This paper applies recently developed procedures to monitor and date so-called "financial market dislocations", defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate...

In this article we study the expected rank problem under full information. Our approach uses the planar Poisson approach from Gnedin (2007) to derive the expected rank of a stopping rule that is one of the simplest non-trivial examples combining rank dependent rules with threshold rules. This...

We investigate the sources of time-variation in the stock-oil correlation over the period 1983-2019. We first derive a novel oil futures return news decomposition following Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Campbell (1991). Then, for both stocks and oil, we split unexpected returns into cash flow...

We investigate the sources of time-variation in the stock-oil correlation over the period 1986-2018. We first derive an oil futures return news decomposition following Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Campbell (1991). Then, for both stock and oil, we split unexpected returns into cash-flow news...

This paper applies recently developed procedures to monitor and date so-called "financial marketdislocations", defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate...

This paper applies recently developed procedures to monitor and date so-called "financial market dislocations", defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate...

An investor faces a sequence of high-risk investment opportunities. The investor ranks the corresponding projects seen so far and must decide whether and how much to invest into the currently observed opportunity. Returns are realized at the end of the investment horizon, where only a small...