Cet article s’appuie sur une analyse en composantes principales pour identifier les mouvements des courbes de prix du pétrole brut. L’étude confirme que trois composantes permettent d’expliquer les fluctuations des prix à terme : déplacement parallèle, pentification, et courbure. De...

Whereas the spatial integration has already been examined in commodity markets, empirical tests on temporal integration have never been carried out. Relying on the “preferred habitat” theory, which is applied to the crude oil market, this article investigates whether this market is segmented...

This article focuses on the volatility of crude oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It aims at examining whether this market creates excess volatility, which would not be observed in the absence of such a market. In order to reach this objective, price fluctuations are...

This article presents and compares two different Kalman filters. These methods provide a very interesting way to cope with the presence of non-observable variables, which is a frequent problem in finance. They are also very fast even in the presence of a large information volume. The first...

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on term structure models of commodity prices. The first section is devoted to the theoretical analysis of the term structure. It confines itself primarily to the traditional theories of commodity prices and to their...

Developing term structure models can be tricky, as unknown factors and non-observable variables can affect futures prices. But principal components analysis is useful in tackling these problems. Here, Delphine Lautier uses PCA to pin down price movements, test their stability over time and to...

In this short notice, we present structure of the perfect hedging. Closed form formulas clarify the fact that Black-Scholes (BS) portfolio which provides perfect hedge only at initial moment. Holding portfolio over a certain period implies additional cash flow, which could not be imbedded in BS...

This article proposes an empirical study of the Samuelson effect in electricity markets. Our motivations are twofold. First, although the literature largely assesses the decreasing pattern in the volatilities along the price curve in commodity markets, it has not extensively tested the presence...

In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Sholes pricing model is based on assumption that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real...