Using a common trends model, we estimate a forward-looking core inflation measure for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the two-pillar...

The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency...

In the paper a multivariate unobserved components model for returns and net inflows into hedge funds is employed to assess whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. The econometric model is used to estimate expected flows and expected returns as unobserved...

A new noise filtering approach, based on flexible least squares (FLS) estimation of an unobserved component local level model, is introduced. The proposed FLS filter has been found to perform well in Monte Carlo analysis, independently of the persistence properties of the data and the size of...

A new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods (first step) and principal components analysis (second step). Differently from other available methods, it allows the...

In this paper the long-run trend in RPI inflation (core inflation) for the UK over the 1961-1997 period is estimated within the framework of a multivariate common trends model which extends the bivariate VAR approach of Quah and Vahey (1995). In this context core inflation is directly linked to...

An econometric model to be useful for policy analysis should pass the super exogeneity test. In the paper we study the linkage between super exogeneity failure and bias in forecasts and suggest that super exogeneity is an important property also for a forecasting model. Building up on a previous...