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This paper contributes to model the industry interconnecting structure in a network context. General predictive model … interdependency networks. Empirical results show a denser network with heterogeneous central industries in tail cases. Network … out-of-sample forecast of portfolio returns and network centrality-based trading strategies seem to outperform market …
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This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184201
The purpose of this work is to introduce one of the most promising among recently developed statistical techniques – the support vector machine (SVM) – to corporate bankruptcy analysis. An SVM is implemented for analysing such predictors as financial ratios. A method of adapting it to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966212
Recently, Diebold and Li (2003) obtained good forecasting results for yield curves in a reparametrized Nelson-Siegel framework. We analyze similar modeling approaches for price curves of variance swaps that serve nowadays as hedging instruments for options on realized variance.We consider the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966237
Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966238
In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966259
In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966267