This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

The global economy is in the midst of its deepest and most widespread recession since WW II. The euro-area economy has not been spared. It has been in recession since the second quarter of 2008 with the fall in real GDP accelerating to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) by the first quarter of this...

Private consumption is a key component in the rebalancing of growth that China is seeking, and a challenging one. Not only for the 1.3 bn. Chinese citizens, but it could make an important contribution in addressing global imbalances. Understanding what drove the consumption share down to a mere...

China's economy slowed significantly in the first three quarters of 2012 and questions have been raised on a possible hard landing. While recent early indicators have shown signs of improvement in the most recent months, it is essential to understand what is driving this slowdown and how lasting...

The US, Japan and China appear to be heading towards a "new normal". However, the 2014-16 period will be critical to ensure that global growth is put on a sustainable path as ample challenges persist. The brief will first discuss what the new manual would look like in the US, Japan and China. It...