Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of a commodity should be linked to a large-country real interest rate and fluctuations of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we test this prediction using an out-ofsample forecasting experiment....

Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of gold should be linked to real interest rates and the rate of change of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we use a real-time forecasting approach to analyze whether real interest rates and...