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As a result of the BoJ's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and...
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Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...
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"To measure the wealth-consumption ratio, we estimate an exponentially affine model of the stochastic discount factor … US consumption. Our estimates indicate that total wealth is much safer than stock market wealth. The consumption risk … wealth-consumption ratio is much higher than the price-dividend ratio on stocks throughout the post-war period. The high …
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"We find that the US consumption growth beta of an investment strategy that goes long in high interest rate currencies … and short in low interest rate currencies is larger than one. These consumption beta estimates are statistically … significant, contrary to what is claimed by Burnside (2007). With these consumption betas, the Consumption-CAPM can account for …
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Governments face a trade-off between insuring bondholders and taxpayers. If the government fully insures bondholders by manufacturing risk-free zero-beta debt, then it cannot also insure taxpayers against permanent macroeconomic shocks over long horizons. Instead, taxpayers will pay more in...
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