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Relative forecasting performance of volatility models : Monte Carlo evidence
Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo - 2010
A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under alternative data generating processes (DGPs). The models included in the MC study are the (Fractionally Integrated) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932329
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Complex interactions in financial markets
Finger, Karl - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305495
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Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative lognormal cascades
Leövey, Andrés E.; Lux, Thomas - 2011
We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845
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Multifractal models, intertrade durations and return volatility
Segnon, Mawuli - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299266
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Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility : evidence from historical and recent data
Lux, Thomas; Segnon, Mawuli; Gupta, Rangan - 2015
This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488966
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An analysis of systematic risk in worldwide econonomic sentiment indices
Luu, Duc Thi; Yanovski, Boyan; Lux, Thomas - 2018 - Ver. January 2, 2018
tools of Random Matrix Theory (RMT) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), our paper aims to extract latent information … embedded in the interactions between economic and business sentiment indices around the world. We find that: (i) The dynamics … collapse of the US housing market in 2007, can lead to a homogenization of the expectation structure around the world, as such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790790
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Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns : the scaling behaviour of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components
Liu, Ruipeng (contributor); Di Matteo, Tiziana (contributor) - 2008
In this paper we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal model (MSM) with Lognormal volatility components. In order to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003715073
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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Applications of agent-based models and nonlinear econometrics in finance
Demary, Markus - 2010
This dissertation contains applications of agent-based financial market models and nonlinear econometric methods in financial economics. The first part deals with the analysis of the effectiveness of currency transaction taxes within financial market models with traders with heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008664302