This paper proposes a new hedging scheme of European derivatives under uncertain volatility environments, in which a weighted variance swap called the polynomial variance swap is added to the Black-Scholes delta hedging for managing exposure to volatility risk. In general, under these...

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand...

Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the...

In 2003, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) made two key enhancements to the volatility index (VIX) methodology based on S&P options. The new VIX methodology seems to be based on a complicated formula to calculate expected volatility. In this paper, with the use of Thailand's SET50 Index...

Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for...

In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...

The management and monitoring of very large portfolios of financial assets are routine for many individuals and organizations. The two most widely used models of conditional covariances and correlations in the class of multivariate GARCH models are BEKK and DCC. It is well known that BEKK...

DAMGARCH is a new model that extends the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) by introducing multiple thresholds and time-dependent structure in the asymmetry of the conditional variances. Analytical expressions for the news impact surface implied by the new model are also presented....

This paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct and...

This paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside risk...