In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second...

The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not...

In the paper a multivariate unobserved components model for returns and net inflows into hedge funds is employed to assess whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. The econometric model is used to estimate expected flows and expected returns as unobserved...

In the paper we investigate the empirical features of euro area money market turbulence during the recent financial crisis. By means of a novel Fractionally Integrated Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive model, we find evidence of a deterministic level factor in the EURIBOR-OIS (OIS)...

The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency...

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is...

This paper proposes a three-step estimation strategy for dynamic conditional correlation models. In the first step, conditional variances for individual and aggregate series are estimated by means of QML equation by equation. In the second step, conditional covariances are estimated by means of...

The paper introduces a new simple semiparametric estimator of the conditional variance covariance and correlation matrix (SP-DCC). While sharing a similar sequential approach to existing dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) methods, SP-DCC has the advantage of not requiring the direct...

Concurrent with the rapid development of the market for catastrophe (cat) bonds, a steady decline in their risk premia has been observed. Whether the latter trend is consistent with the evolution of natural disasters risk is an open question. Indeed, a large share of outstanding risk capital in...

A new noise filtering approach, based on flexible least squares (FLS) estimation of an unobserved component local level model, is introduced. The proposed FLS filter has been found to perform well in Monte Carlo analysis, independently of the persistence properties of the data and the size of...