In the paper we assess the convergence hypothesis for the Italian economy over the period 1951-2000, using a new methodological approach. The approach is based on a two-step recursive principal components estimator, allowing to monitor the progress of the convergence process over time and to...

An econometric model to be useful for policy analysis should pass the super exogeneity test. In the paper we study the linkage between super exogeneity failure and bias in forecasts and suggest that super exogeneity is an important property also for a forecasting model. Building up on a previous...

In this paper we investigate the long-run growth process in Italy and the US over the period 1920-2001, using a common trends model. Coherent with the neoclassical growth model, we find that long-run economic growth can be explained by two permanent shocks, namely a technological shock and a...