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This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001539419
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321125
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making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations … models proposed in the literature can be used to formally characterize and quantify market risk. In particular, we ask how … adequate these models are for modelling market risk at times of financial crisis. In doing so we consider a multivariate t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...
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