This paper proposes a new method to measure the impact of inflation on the real value of public debt. The distribution of debt debasement is based on two inputs: the distribution of privately-held nominal debt by maturity, for which we provide new estimates, and the distribution of risk-adjusted...

We propose and implement a method that provides quantitative estimates of the extent to which higher- than-expected inflation can lower the real value of outstanding government debt. Looking forward, we derive a formula for the debt burden that relies on detailed information about debt maturity...

The prices of long-dated inflation swap contracts provide a much-used estimate of expected inflation at far horizons. This paper develops the methods to estimate complementary tail probabilities for persistently very high or very low inflation using the prices of inflation options. For the...